Bayes Theorem Banned?

Quick post: judge bans Bayes Theorem from evidence according to the Guardian.

Bayes Theorem is a vitally important part of maths/stats, and in particular, very important for reasoning about evidence. The classic teaching example is of a test for a rare disease. If the disease affects 1/100,000 and the false positive rate is 1/10,000, and the test is 100% reliable otherwise, the probability is that a positive outcome is a false positive is 90%+. I frequently shudder at the maths/economics illiteracy in the UK. This isn't making that any better.

Amazingly, we're not even allowed to know the name of the judge or the name of the appelant.

1 comment:

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